云南省2015—2020年野¬生蕈中毒流行特征及趋势预测

Epidemiologic features of the wild mushroom poisoning in Yunnan province during 2015—2020 and its trend prediction

中文关键词:  野生蕈  食物中毒  流行病学  监测  季节趋势模型

英文关键词:wild mushroom  food poisoning  epidemiology  surveillance  seasonal trend model

中文摘要:

      目的 探讨云南省2015—2020年野生蕈中毒事件的发病规律和特点。方法 采用描述流行病学方法, 对云南省野生蕈中毒事件进行分析, 采用季节趋势模型对云南省2021年每月野生蕈中毒事件数进行预测。 结果 云南省2015—2020年共报告野生蕈中毒事件3428起, 中毒13931人, 死亡180人。6~8月为云南省野生蕈中毒的高峰期, 报告起数占总数的85.0%。报告起数前3位的州市为: 文山、玉溪和楚雄, 报告起数占总数的48.7%; 家庭是野生蕈中毒高发的场所, 事件报告数、发病人数、死亡人数分别占总数的91.7%、85.2%和93.9%。采用季节趋势模型预测云南省2021年野生蕈中毒事件将继续呈上升趋势, 中毒高峰为6~8月。 结论 野生蕈中毒是云南省危害较为严重的公共卫生事件, 6~8月份是野生蕈中毒的好发季节, 家庭是野生蕈中毒的好发场所。相关部门应提前制定有效的防控措施, 广泛开展预防野生蕈中毒知识宣传教育, 避免野生蕈中毒事件的发生。本研究建立的季节趋势模型对云南省野生蕈中毒事件的拟合效果较好, 可以应用于野生蕈中毒流行预测。

英文摘要:

      Objective To explore the regulation and features of the poisoning originated from wild mushroom incidences in Yunnan province from 2015 to 2020. Methods Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyze the wild mushroom poisoning incidences in Yunnan province, the monthly incidences about the wild mushroom poisoning in 2021 was predicted by seasonal trend model. Results There were 3428 incidences, 13931 poisoned people and 180 deaths originated from wild mushroom incidence in Yunnan province from 2015 to 2020. The peak of incidence occurred from June to August, and the reported incidences accounted for 85.0% of the whole year. The top 3 regions of wild mushroom poisoning incidences were Wenshan, Yuxi and Chuxiong, and the reported incidences accounted for 48.7% of the whole year. The place of wild mushroom poisoning incidences occurred in Family frequently, and the reported incidences accounted for 91.7% of the whole year, and the poisoned person accounted for 85.2% of the whole year, and the death toll accounted for 93.9% of the whole year. The seasonal trend model was used to predict that wild mushroom poisoning incidences will continue to rise in 2021, and the poisoning peak would occurr from June to August. Conclusion The wild mushroom poisoning is a serious public health incidence in Yunnan province, The season of high incidence of wild mushroom poisoning is from June to August, and home is the most often place that the mushroom poisoning occurs. The relevant departments should formulate effective prevention and control measures in advance, and extensively carry out publicity and education on the prevention of wild mushroom poisoning to avoid the occurrence of wild mushroom poisoning incidences. The seasonal trend model established in this study has a good fitting effect on wild mushroom poisoning events, can be used to predict the trend of the wild mushroom poising in Yunnan province.