基于气象因素的细菌性食物中毒预警系统的建立

Establishment of early warning system for bacterial food poisoning based on meteorological factors

中文关键词:  细菌性食物中毒  气象条件  预警系统

英文关键词:bacterial food poisoning  meteorological conditions  early warning system

中文摘要:

      目的 建立基于气象条件的细菌性食物中毒预警系统。方法 基于1992~2006年上海地区集体性细菌性食物中毒事件资料和气温、相对湿度的气象数据, 计算在给定的气象条件范围内全年和逐月中毒事件发生的条件概率, 统计黄金周对中毒事件发生概率的影响。结果 建立了基于气温和相对湿度的细菌性食物中毒预警系统, 划分了中毒事件预警的等级标准。结论 经2007年和2008年细菌性食物中毒事件实际发生情况的验证, 本研究建立的模型对事件高发期内中毒事件的发生有一定的预报能力。

英文摘要:

      Objective To establish an early warning system for bacterial food poisoning based on meteorological conditions. Methods The conditional probability of food poisoning was analyzed at monthly and yearly scale within a given range of meteorological conditions based on the data of collective bacterial food poisoning and meteorological conditions (air temperature and relative humidity) during 1992~2006 in Shanghai. The impact of “golden week” on risk of food poisoning was also studied. Results An early warning system for bacterial food poisoning based on the air temperature and relative humidity was developed as well as the division standard of pre-warning level. Conclusion Through the comparison of model prediction value and reported food poisoning events in 2007 and 2008, the model shows a certain forecast ability for the incidence of poisoning during peak period of food poisoning events.