米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌剂量效应模型的构建

Establishment of dose-response model for Bacillus cereus in cooked rice

中文关键词:  米饭  蜡样芽孢杆菌  剂量效应模型

英文关键词:cooked rice  Bacillus cereus  dose-response model

中文摘要:

      目的 建立有效的米饭蜡样芽孢杆菌剂量效应模型。方法 调研并选用2001-2011年我国9起米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌导致食物中毒的数据, 基于指数模型、泊松模型、对数模型、威布模型等及其修正形式分别构建了米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌剂量效应模型。结果 修正的指数模型、对数概率模型和Gamma威布模型三者在拟合效果上显著优于其他模型(R2>0.70), 拟合曲线外延至低剂量预测中毒率时, Gamma威布模型低于前两者, 进一步的数学检验表明, Gamma威布模型准确因子(Af=1.40)优于前两者, 偏差因子(Bf)和预测标准误差(SEP)相近或略高于前两者。结论 建议选用Gamma威布模型作为米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌最优的剂量效应模型用于蜡样芽孢杆菌风险评估体系中的危害特征分析。

英文摘要:

      Objective To establish an effective dose-response model of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice. Methods Totally 9 food poison issues during 2001~2011 in China were investigated and selected as dose-response model (DRM) data in this paper. DRMs of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice were established on the basis of Exponential, Poisson, Log, Weibull and relative modified model types, respectively. Results Modified Exponential, Log-logistic and Gamma-Weibull models were better than others with adjusted R2>0.70. Moreover, compared with modified Exponential and Log-logistic models, Gamma-Weibull model proved to be with lower predictive food poison rate while extrapolating from high to low doses of B. cereus, lower ac-curacy-factor (Af) value, and similar bias-factor (Bf) and standard error prediction (SEP) values, respectively. Conclusion Gamma-Weibull model as the best one might be used to analyze the hazard characterization of B. cereus in risk assessment system in cooked rice.