基于统计方法的食用农产品安全风险分析研究

Study on safety risk analysis of edible agricultural products based on statistical methods

中文关键词:  食用农产品  统计学  食品安全  风险分析  二项检验  卡方检验

英文关键词:edible agricultural products  statistics  food safety  risk analysis  binomial test  Chi-square test

中文摘要:

      目的 基于统计方法对食用农产品安全风险进行分析研究。方法 基于国家市场监督管理总局公布的2025年北京市18个地区食用农产品监督抽检数据, 选取辣椒、芹菜、葱、姜、猪肉、鸡蛋、海水鱼 7 类常见食用农产品作为对象进行安全风险分析, 使用二项检验(设定p0=0.99、p0=0.95两个基准)划分风险等级, 聚焦禁限用农药、兽药及重金属残留特征开展专项分析, 同时采用卡方检验完成不同品种间风险差异、不同区域残留水平差异的统计学分析。结果 选定的7种食品总体不合格率为0.15% (3/1942), 仅葱、鸡蛋两类产品存在不合格情况, 不合格项目分别为农药噻虫嗪、兽药氟苯尼考(氟苯尼考与氟苯尼考胺之和)。二项检验判定潜在高风险品种2种(辣椒、芹菜, p0=0.99 时P<0.05)、潜在中风险品种5种(葱、姜、猪肉、鸡蛋、海水鱼, p0=0.95时P<0.05), 无低风险品种。卡方检验显示品类间风险无显著差异(χ2=9.6135, df=6, P=0.1419>0.05), 葱中噻虫嗪检出率为12.8% (34/266), 超标率为0.75% (2/266), 超标样品集中于房山; 鸡蛋中氟苯尼考仅1件超标(0.44%, 1/226), 且来自房山区域。区域差异分析表明, 房山地区葱中噻虫嗪检出率(34.4%)显著高于丰台地区(3.8%); 不同区域鸡蛋中氟苯尼考检出率存在统计学显著差异(P<0.05)。结论 本研究构建的基于二项检验与卡方检验的食用农产品安全风险分析方法, 可有效弥补传统风险评估过度依赖实际不合格率的缺陷, 为食用农产品质量安全风险分级与精准监管提供了可靠的统计学工具。研究结果可为市场监管部门优化抽检方案提供数据支撑, 建议针对潜在高风险品种增加抽检频次。 同时对葱类产品开展农药残留专项整治, 强化重点区域的源头管控与流通环节监督, 切实保障食用农产品质量安全, 维护消费者合法权益。

英文摘要:

      Objective To conduct a systematic analysis of the safety risks associated with edible agricultural products by applying statistical methods. Methods Based on the supervision and sampling inspection data of edible agricultural products in 18 areas of Beijing in 2025 released by the State Administration for Market Regulation, 7 common kinds of edible agricultural products including hot pepper, celery, scallion, ginger, pork, eggs and marine fish were selected as the study objects for safety risk analysis. The binomial test with 2 benchmarks set at p0=0.99, p0=0.95 was adopted to classify risk levels, and special analysis was conducted focusing on the residue profiles of prohibited and restricted pesticides, veterinary drugs and heavy metals. Meanwhile, the Chi-square test was used to conduct statistical analysis on the risk differences among different varieties and the residue level differences in different regions. Results The overall nonconformance rate of the selected 7 kinds of food was 0.15% (3/1942), and only scallion and egg were non-compliant, with pesticide thiamethoxam and veterinary drug florfenicol (the sum of florfenicol and florfenicol amine combined) respectively. The binomial test identified 2 kinds of potential high-risk varieties (hot pepper and celery, P<0.05 at p0=0.99) and 5 kinds of potential medium-risk varieties (scallion, ginger, pork, egg and marine fish, P<0.05 at p0=0.95), with no low-risk varieties found. The Chi-square test indicated no significant difference in risks among the categories (χ2=9.6135, df=6, P=0.1419>0.05). The detection rate of thiamethoxam in scallions was 12.8% (34/266) and the excess rate was 0.75% (2/266), and the excessive samples were concentrated in Fangshan District; only 1 sample of egg was excessive in florfenicol (0.44%, 1/226), which was also from Fangshan District. Regional difference analysis showed that the detection rate of thiamethoxam in scallion in Fangshan District (34.4%) was significantly higher than that in Fengtai District (3.8%), and statistically significant regional differences existed in the detection rate of florfenicol in eggs (P<0.05). Conclusion The safety risk analysis method for edible agricultural products based on the binomial test and Chi-square test constructed in this study can effectively make up for the defect that traditional risk assessment overrelies on the actual nonconformance rate, and provide a reliable statistical tool for the risk classification and precise supervision of the quality and safety of edible agricultural products. The study results can provide data support for market supervision departments to optimize sampling inspection schemes. It is suggested that the sampling inspection frequency should be increased for potentially high-risk varieties. Meanwhile special rectification of pesticide residues should be carried out on scallion products, the source control in key areas and the supervision in circulation links should be strengthened, so as to effectively ensure the quality and safety of edible agricultural products and protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers.